Anchoring European Integration in Moldova’s Constitution: A Critical Victory Amid Unprecedented Hybrid War

Moldova’s recent constitutional referendum to enshrine its goal of European integration represents a significant development in its legal and geopolitical landscape. Taking place against the backdrop of geopolitical tensions and Russia’s hybrid war in Eastern Europe—which combines disinformation, economic coercion, cyberattacks, and support for separatist movements to destabilize pro-European governments and reinforce Russian influence—the referendum is as much a domestic initiative as it is a symbolic regional statement. The result underscores the high stakes in this regional struggle, as Moldova seeks to cement its European trajectory while addressing challenges of governance and societal divisions - writes Rodica Secrieru

Introduction

Since gaining independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, Moldova has grappled with challenges of state-building, governance, and territorial integrity. While successive governments have pursued EU alignment to varying degrees, Moldova’s political instability and oscillations between pro-European and pro-Russian orientations, reflecting deep societal divisions and geopolitical pressures, have created a cycle of stalled reforms and policy reversals. This constant flux has left Moldova vulnerable to both internal inefficiencies and external interference, further complicating its path to European integration. The country’s decision to formally apply for EU membership in March 2022 and then hold a constitutional referendum enshrining its European trajectory can therefore be understood as both a legal milestone and a strategic response to enduring vulnerabilities.

On 17 June 2022, the European Commission issued its Opinion on Moldova’s application, and on 23 June 2022, the European Council granted it EU candidate status. Following the European Commission recommendation in November 2023, the European Council in December 2023 decided to open accession negotiations with Moldova. Immediately, the President called on parliament to initiate a referendum on constitutional amendments affirming the irreversibility of Moldova’s EU integration path. Following a favorable opinion by the Constitutional Court on the constitutionality of the proposed amendments, the single-party parliamentary majority approved the decision to hold the referendum concurrently with the presidential election. Opposition lawmakers either opposed the motion or abstained from voting, arguing that a referendum would only be appropriate after Moldova concludes its EU accession negotiations and the conditions for membership are clearly defined. They also criticized inconsistencies between the text of the draft law amending the Constitution and the question proposed for the plebiscite. Despite such protestations, the nationwide, binding constitutional referendum took place on 20 October 2024, with the proposal to embed EU integration in the Constitution passed by the slimmest margin: 50.35 per cent. Following validation of the referendum results by the Constitutional Court, the amendments to the Constitution were published in the Official Gazette and entered into force on 5 November 2024.

European Integration as a Defining Element of Moldova’s Constitutional Identity

Moldova’s constitutional commitment to European Union membership aligns with past rulings of the Constitutional Court that have emphasized Moldova's orientation toward European values as a defining element of its constitutional identity. This concept of a “constitutional identity” was first introduced by the Constitutional Court in a landmark 2013 ruling based on elements found to be essential in the Declaration of Independence—such as Moldova’s European geopolitical orientation, democratization, rule of law, and market economy. The Declaration of Independence is recognized as having the value of a constitutional text and forming a “block of constitutionality” together with the Constitution. Consequently, the Court built on this judicial foundation when issuing another pivotal ruling in 2014 on the constitutionality of the EU-Moldova Association Agreement.

This interpretation, strengthened by its subsequent case law, provided the legal and philosophical foundation for EU integration that was at the center of the recent referendum.

Issues Put Forward to the Referendum

The referendum proposal presented a general question together with the verbatim text of the proposed constitutional amendment, offering voters a single choice: to approve or reject. The amendments add provisions in the Preamble affirming the European identity of Moldova’s people, declaring the irreversibility of the European path of the country, and confirming integration into the EU as a strategic goal. Additionally, the amendments introduce a new article that enables parliament to adopt organic laws for acceding to EU founding treaties, and establishing, upon accession, the precedence of the EU acquis over national laws. The latter provision is largely inspired by similar wording in the Romanian Constitution.

The Constitution of Moldova, under Article 142, requires any referendum that could revise ‘the sovereign, independent and unitary character of the State, as well as its permanent neutrality’ to be approved by a majority vote of all registered voters. In evaluating the constitutionality of the proposed amendments, the Constitutional Court concluded that they do not fall under the sovereignty clause. As a result, the lower validation threshold specified by the Electoral Code—majority approval with at least one-third of all registered voters participating—was applied.  

Moldova’s referendum shares parallels with Georgia’s 2018 and Ukraine’s 2019 constitutional amendments, which also inserted Euro-Atlantic aspirations in their respective Constitutions. A major distinction, however, is that Moldova’s amendments do not aim at NATO membership, while Article 11 of the Constitution still proclaims Moldova’s neutrality.

The Dramatic Result

The referendum passed by a razor-thin margin—decided by just over 10,000 votes, with the diaspora tipping the balance in favor—reflects Moldova’s deep internal divides. Urban, younger, and diaspora populations largely support the government’s pro-EU reform agenda, while rural and older demographics, often favoring closer ties with Russia, remain skeptical. These challenges are magnified in two distinct and politically sensitive regions with strong Russian influence: the separatist Transnistrian region (almost 70 per cent voted against EU integration) and the autonomous Gagauz territorial unit (almost 95 per cent voted against EU integration). There is little engagement by the central government in these regions, and ongoing cyberattacks have exacerbated existing divisions, positioning these regions as focal points of resistance to EU alignment.

Moldova’s diverse ethnic and linguistic identities also strongly shape political orientations.

Moldova’s diverse ethnic and linguistic identities also strongly shape political orientations. Romanians (Moldovans), the majority ethnic group, generally support European integration, particularly those who identify culturally and historically with Romania. Russian-speaking minorities (including Russian, Ukrainian, Gagauz, and Bulgarian minorities), along with Russified Moldovans, tend to lean toward pro-Russian parties, influenced by cultural affinity and Moscow’s active engagement in these communities. Past elections have consistently demonstrated a nearly even 50/50 split along these lines. From this standpoint, the results of the referendum mirror this reality. This societal split, unsurprisingly, creates challenges for achieving consensus on constitutional matters.

Factors Shaping the Referendum

In the months before the referendum, a convergence of internal and external pressures shaped the political climate and public discourse. Multiple forces worked in tandem—sometimes openly, sometimes covertly—to influence perceptions of the referendum’s goals and its potential consequences. The following factors provide the backdrop for the result:

• Disinformation Campaigns

In the lead up to the constitutional referendum, Moldova experienced a surge in disinformation targeting its pro-European policies. Pro-Russian media outlets and social platforms amplified narratives portraying EU integration as a threat to Moldova’s sovereignty and neutrality. These campaigns particularly targeted rural and Russian-speaking populations, stoking economic fears, warning that Moldova would become involved in a war against Russia and raising concerns about cultural erosion.

• Economic Leverage

Moldova’s energy dependency on Russia has been a long-standing vulnerability. During the referendum campaign, Moscow used energy supply disruptions and price manipulations to foster dissatisfaction with the pro-European government. This tactic mirrors Russia’s actions in other Eastern European states, where economic pressure serves as a critical instrument of influence.

• Vote-buying Schemes

There was credible evidence of interference from abroad, including offering illicit monetary incentives to influence voters. The authorities reported that roughly 130,000 people were involved in a hierarchical scheme that included opening accounts in a Russian commercial bank to receive funds—USD 15 million transferred in September alone—intended to influence election and referendum outcomes.

• Cyber Threats

Moldova has also faced cyberattacks targeting government institutions, electoral systems, and media outlets. These attacks sought to disrupt the referendum process and undermine public confidence in its legitimacy.

• Timing: Simultaneous Presidential Election and Referendum

The referendum’s timing was significant: not only in the shadow of Russia’s war in Ukraine and growing Russian disinformation campaigns in Moldova, but also held simultaneously with Moldova’s presidential elections, which reflected a deliberate strategy to leverage political momentum. In January 2024, the Parliament passed amendments to the Electoral Code, lifting the prohibition on holding referendums concurrently with elections. This decision came shortly after the incumbent president announced the intention to seek a new presidential term and requested that Parliament organize a referendum on Moldova’s European integration.

[T]he decision to align the presidential election with the referendum has faced criticism from across the political spectrum. 

While international standards do not prohibit holding elections and referendums simultaneously, the decision to align the presidential election with the referendum has faced criticism from across the political spectrum, including pro-EU advocates as well as members of civil society and academia. Critics argue that the timing was strategically chosen to favor the incumbent’s re-election campaign.

A referendum is rarely just about the specific issue on the ballot; more often, it serves as a means to validate or challenge the credibility of its initiator. At times, it also becomes an outlet for general discontent or a warning signal reflecting public frustration. The referendum occurred amid growing dissatisfaction with governance, and while the government has made notable strides in foreign policy, it has faced criticism for not fully delivering on its promised domestic reforms, such as slow progress on anti-corruption efforts and delayed justice reform, failure to address the rising cost of living effectively—especially in light of energy price hikes and inflation—and the limited impact of the government’s economic policies, compounded by a perception of inefficient and politicized public institutions.

Out of the 15 political parties participating in the referendum, only two officially registered to campaign against it. The others either expressed support for the EU path or chose to boycott the referendum altogether, relying on the assumption that the referendum would fail to meet the validation threshold of 1/3 of the registered voters, informed by past referendums in Moldova.

In light of these unique and unprecedented challenges, the referendum became a significant test of Moldova’s democratic resilience.

Connecting the Dots: Regional Implications and the Way Forward

Moldova’s constitutional referendum is not just a domestic initiative but a critical front in the region’s broader struggle against hybrid warfare. The challenges faced by Moldova are not isolated, but part of a broader strategy by Russia to maintain its influence in Eastern Europe. Similar tactics were successfully employed in Georgia’s parliamentary and Romania’s presidential elections. Therefore, Moldova’s experience offers important lessons for other Eastern European states facing similar threats, underscoring the importance of resilience in the face of hybrid warfare. Effective strategies include identifying and countering disinformation—such as banning Russian propaganda channels and promoting media literacy—fostering robust diaspora engagement, and enhancing regional cooperation to bolster collective security and stability. Still, no single referendum can determine a country’s ultimate fate, as the examples of Georgia and Ukraine demonstrate.

As a direct result of the referendum, the preamble of the Constitution now states that integration into the European Union is Moldova’s “strategic objective”. Since the preamble guides the interpretation of national legislation, this change obliges authorities, regardless of their political affiliation, to promote policies aligned with the European integration objective. Consequently, any future law adopted in Moldova must align with European Union principles and values.

Joining the EU may necessitate additional changes to the Constitution, as the experience of other candidate countries has shown. For example, Moldova will have to amend the Constitution to grant EU citizens residing in its territory the right to vote in European and local elections and permit the extradition of citizens to other EU Member States under a European arrest warrant. It will also have to redefine the relationship between parliament and the government to accommodate the EU-level lawmaking process where ministers in the EU Council act as co-legislators with the EU Parliament, which contrasts with the current constitutional provision that specifies Moldova’s Parliament as the sole legislative authority.

The fact that nearly half of voters rejected the referendum highlights the urgent need for targeted efforts to address their concerns . . . 

Moldova’s path to European integration is both a complex and challenging journey. While the recent constitutional referendum is a significant step forward, its success will depend on the ability of Moldova’s leaders to maintain political stability through inclusive governance, build public trust by delivering tangible benefits from EU alignment, and counter external interference, particularly from Russia. The fact that nearly half of voters rejected the referendum highlights the urgent need for targeted efforts to address their concerns through transparent communication, concrete reforms and inclusive policies. This involves combating disinformation, ensuring economic and energy security and showcasing the benefits of EU integration with visible progress in governance and public services. Clear messaging, meaningful dialogue with skeptical voters and tailored outreach to regional and linguistic groups will be essential to fostering broader consensus and unity. By learning from the past and committing to sustained reform, Moldova can navigate its internal divisions and geopolitical challenges to secure a stable and prosperous European future. The referendum was only the beginning of the struggle; the stakes will be incommensurably higher in the upcoming parliamentary elections in 2025.

Rodica Secrieru is a constitutional lawyer and a consultant on constitutional and European integration issues for governments, international development partners, and NGOs, having also served as Secretary General and Chief Assisting-Judge of the Constitutional Court of Moldova (2011-2018). She is also a member of the Network for the Promotion of Constitutionalism in Eastern Europe.

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Suggested citation: Rodica Secrieru, ‘Anchoring European Integration in Moldova’s Constitution: A Critical Victory Amid Unprecedented Hybrid War', ConstitutionNet, International IDEA, 20 December 2024, https://constitutionnet.org/news/voices/anchoring-european-integration-moldovas-constitution

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